Nigeria, the world’s most populous African nation, will become more populous than China and the United States by 2100 according to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) 2020 report. According to the study, the five countries with the largest population by 2100 will be:  India with 1.09 billion, Nigeria with 791 million, China with 732 million, the U.S. with 336 million, and Pakistan with 248 million.

China’s population is projected to decline by 48 per cent. China’s projected decline in people is more than the entire current population of the United States.

In more than 20 countries, the population is expected to decline by more than 50 per cent including Japan, Thailand, and Spain. Last year, the Italian population shrank by almost 400,000 — roughly the size of the city of Florence, Italy or Minneapolis, MN USA — as deaths peaked, births bottomed out, and immigration slowed down. Italy doesn't count its population by color.

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And even in the United States where the population is expected to continue grow, the country is expected to be majority non-White by 2045.

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“More than half of the projected shrink in the global population up to 2100 will be concentrated in China, Indonesia, and Brazil, with China’s total population projected to drop by almost half to 732 million by 2100,” the report said. However, IHME reports conflict with UN reports on when the world population will peak.

Nevertheless, both projections show that in some of these countries where they expect a population decline, the African population is growing.Nigeria continues to grow through it is a major source of recent arrivals to some of those countries with declining populations and the United States. 

According to migrant population data from the United Nations, more than half (51%) of sub-Saharan African migrants living in the U.S. as of 2017 were born in just four countries: Nigeria, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Kenya.

In the United Kingdom, one in four children under the age of ten is already from a minority group. Currently, eight million people, or 14 per cent of the UK population, are from ethnic minorities. But they now account for 80 per cent of population growth, while the White population remains constant. In the United States in 2019, more than half of the children under five were non-White.

United Nation projections show a similar change. Eight of the 10 countries that are expected to gain the most people by 2100 are in Africa: Nigeria (with the largest gain, 527 million), the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Angola, Niger, Egypt and Sudan.

The two non-African nations on this list are Pakistan and the United States. And even in the United States where the population is expected to continue grow, the country is expected to be majority non-White by 2045.

Public Enemy:  Fear of a Black Planet (Released   April 10, 1990)