Robert A. Pape's three-bedroom house, half an hour’s drive south of Chicago, became the pandemic headquarters of a virtual group of seven research professionals, supported by two dozen University of Chicago undergraduates. The CPOST researchers gathered court documents, public records, and news reports to compile a group profile of the insurgents.

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Almost two-thirds of them agreed that “African American people or Hispanic people in our country will eventually have more rights than Whites.”

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Over the previous decade, one in four violent extremists arrested by the FBI had been unemployed. But only 7 percent of the January 6 insurgents were jobless, and more than half of the group had a white-collar job or owned their own business.

Only one meaningful correlation emerged. Other things being equal, insurgents were much more likely to come from a county where the White share of the population was in decline. For every one-point drop in a county’s percentage of non-Hispanic Whites from 2015 to 2019, the likelihood of an insurgent hailing from that county increased by 25 percent. This was a strong link, and it held up in every state.

Trump and some of his most vocal allies, Tucker Carlson of Fox News notably among them, had taught supporters to fear that Black and brown people were coming to replace them. According to the latest census projections, White Americans will become a minority, nationally, in 2045. The insurgents could see their majority status slipping before their eyes.

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From Our Archives

The End of White Christian America

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On a Light Note:

AntiRac - A short movie from Congo Square Theater-Chicago on an anti-racism pill. "Stop being racist today."